Shifting landscape of disability and development in India: Analysis from historical trends to future predictions 2001-2031
Hana Kapadia, Arun Kumar Rajasekaran

TL;DR
This study analyzes historical disability trends in India from 2001 to 2031, highlighting the impact of development, gender disparities, and disease types, and projecting future health priorities.
Contribution
It introduces regression models to analyze disability trends across decades and predicts future shifts, emphasizing the need to focus on chronic diseases and gender disparities.
Findings
Communicable disease DALYs decrease with higher HDI
Noncommunicable disease DALYs remain unchanged despite development
Gender disparities favor males in disability prevalence
Abstract
This study delves into the causes and trends of disability-related health burdens across Indian states. Through multiple Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) types (covering communicable diseases, noncommunicable diseases, and injuries), gender disparities, and Human Development Index (HDI) values, these disability trends were evaluated. The data for this study was compiled from censuses, health research organisations, and data centres, among various other sources. We built regression models and used them to analyze trends across past decades and make projections for 2031. Our regression results show a strong inverse relationship between communicable disease DALYs and HDI. In other words, ongoing improvements in development and infrastructure significantly reduced communicable disease DALYs. In contrast, noncommunicable DALYs did not decrease despite rising HDI. And lastly, injury…
Peer Reviews
No public reviews on file for this paper yet. If you reviewed it on a platform where reviews are public (OpenReview, ICLR, NeurIPS, ICML), you can paste yours below so the community can read it here.
Videos
No videos yet. Explain this paper in a talk, walkthrough, or lecture? Add one.
Taxonomy
TopicsDisability Rights and Representation · Cerebral Palsy and Movement Disorders · Health disparities and outcomes
