Shifting landscape of disability and development in India: Analysis from historical trends to future predictions 2001-2031

TL;DR

This study analyzes historical disability trends in India from 2001 to 2031, highlighting the impact of development, gender disparities, and disease types, and projecting future health priorities.

Contribution

It introduces regression models to analyze disability trends across decades and predicts future shifts, emphasizing the need to focus on chronic diseases and gender disparities.

Findings

Communicable disease DALYs decrease with higher HDI

Noncommunicable disease DALYs remain unchanged despite development

Gender disparities favor males in disability prevalence

Abstract

This study delves into the causes and trends of disability-related health burdens across Indian states. Through multiple Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALY) types (covering communicable diseases, noncommunicable diseases, and injuries), gender disparities, and Human Development Index (HDI) values, these disability trends were evaluated. The data for this study was compiled from censuses, health research organisations, and data centres, among various other sources. We built regression models and used them to analyze trends across past decades and make projections for 2031. Our regression results show a strong inverse relationship between communicable disease DALYs and HDI. In other words, ongoing improvements in development and infrastructure significantly reduced communicable disease DALYs. In contrast, noncommunicable DALYs did not decrease despite rising HDI. And lastly, injury DALYs showed moderate declines with higher HDI, which reflects improvements in healthcare and safety systems. Gender analysis showed male overrepresentation among people with disabilities. These results from our study support that there is a need to shift public health focus toward chronic diseases and address gender disparities in disability outcomes.