Percolation and Threshold-like Behavior in Multiple Sclerosis Progression

TL;DR

This paper explores the hypothesis that multiple sclerosis progression involves a percolation or phase transition, analyzing theoretical models, clinical markers, and counter-evidence to understand abrupt versus gradual disease progression.

Contribution

It systematically reviews evidence supporting and challenging the percolation hypothesis in MS progression, integrating models, clinical data, and counter-arguments.

Findings

Evidence for percolation thresholds in network models

Clinical markers indicating potential early-warning signals

Counter-evidence supporting gradual transition hypothesis

Abstract

In this study we investigate the Percolation Hypothesis for Multiple Sclerosis Progression. The methodology relies on cross-reference analysis centered around a question: What is the evidence for a Percolation/phase-transition hypothesis in Multiple Sclerosis (MS), especially the idea that the RRMS dynamic balance can abruptly break akin to crossing a percolation threshold into SPMS? We identify theoretical models invoking percolation/critical thresholds, network/connectome studies assessing percolation robustness or threshold-like behavior, clinical markers showing thresholds or early-warning signals, and counter-evidence arguing for gradual/continuum transitions.