Simulated LSST Observations of Real Metre-scale Imminent Impactors

TL;DR

This study uses simulated LSST observations of real metre-scale impactors to estimate detection capabilities, predicting that LSST could discover about 8 imminent impactors over 10 years, mostly days before impact.

Contribution

It evaluates LSST's potential to detect imminent Earth impactors using real impactor data and simulation, proposing improved algorithms for fast-moving object detection.

Findings

LSST would observe 13.9% of simulated impactors.

Default linking algorithm detects 0.9% pre-impact.

Modified algorithm increases detection to 3.7%.

Abstract

As of mid-2026, 11 objects have been discovered prior to impacting the Earth, with warning times between 2 - 20 hours. Using real metre-sized Earth impactors from the last decade, we ask the question: ``If the Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) had been operating over the last decade, how many imminent impactors would it have observed and discovered pre-impact, and how early would these discoveries have been?'' We use the LSST Solar System Survey Simulator Sorcha and a population of real fireballs observed by orbital sensors over the last decade to investigate which events would have been observed pre-impact. We find that the LSST would have observed 30 (13.9%) of the 216 simulated objects, with most objects receiving 2 - 4 observations. Using the default linking algorithm, only two (0.9%) of these objects would have been `discovered' pre-impact. Using a modified linking algorithm better suited to fast moving objects, this increases to eight (3.7%). Based on this, we predict that the LSST will discover 8 +/- 2 imminent impactors over its nominal 10 year survey, at the low end of previous estimations. However, we predict these objects to be discovered 4 days pre-impact, substantially earlier than the current average. This will bring significant opportunities for telescopic follow-up, targeted fireball observations, planetary defence planning, and public engagement. There is also significant potential for precovery for impactors observed by the LSST but discovered by other surveys, instantly lengthening observation arcs and thereby reducing the orbital and impact location uncertainties. In some cases, these observations may also enable the linkage of telescopic observations with observed fireballs post-impact, providing valuable pre-impact astrometric and photometric data. This has significant implications for both asteroid research and planetary defence.