Legendre Memory Unit with A Multi-Slice Compensation Model for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Wind Farm Cluster Data

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel ensemble model combining data denoising, a Legendre memory unit, and a multi-slice compensation approach to improve short-term wind speed forecasting for clustered wind farms, leveraging spatial-temporal correlations.

Contribution

It proposes the WMF-CPK-MSLMU ensemble model that integrates denoising, a specialized memory unit, and adaptive weighting for enhanced accuracy and robustness in wind speed prediction.

Findings

Outperforms existing models in accuracy on wind farm cluster data.

Effectively captures spatial-temporal correlations among farms.

Demonstrates robustness and adaptability in different cluster scenarios.

Abstract

With more wind farms clustered for integration, the short-term wind speed prediction of such wind farm clusters is critical for normal operation of power systems. This paper focuses on achieving accurate, fast, and robust wind speed prediction by full use of cluster data with spatial-temporal correlation. First, weighted mean filtering (WMF) is applied to denoise wind speed data at the single-farm level. The Legendre memory unit (LMU) is then innovatively applied for the wind speed prediction, in combination with the Compensating Parameter based on Kendall rank correlation coefficient (CPK) of wind farm cluster data, to construct the multi-slice LMU (MSLMU). Finally, an innovative ensemble model WMF-CPK-MSLMU is proposed herein, with three key blocks: data pre-processing, forecasting, and multi-slice compensation. Advantages include: 1) LMU jointly models linear and nonlinear dependencies among farms to capture spatial-temporal correlations through backpropagation; 2) MSLMU enhances forecasting by using CPK-derived weights instead of random initialization, allowing spatial correlations to fully activate hidden nodes across clustered wind farms.; 3) CPK adaptively weights the compensation model in MSLMU and complements missing data spatially, to facilitate the whole model highly accurate and robust. Test results on different wind farm clusters indicate the effectiveness and superiority of proposed ensemble model WMF-CPK-MSLMU in the short-term prediction of wind farm clusters compared to the existing models.