The local void model for the Hubble and BAO tensions

TL;DR

This paper explores whether a large local void can explain the Hubble tension by causing local redshift effects, supported by galaxy counts and BAO data, and discusses future observational tests.

Contribution

It proposes a local void model as an explanation for the Hubble tension and connects it with low-redshift BAO anomalies, supported by semi-analytic predictions and observational evidence.

Findings

Local underdensity may cause apparent Hubble tension.

BAO deviations are consistent with a local void model.

Predictions align with observed redshift dependence of expansion.

Abstract

The inconsistency between the locally inferred Hubble constant and the value inferred from the cosmic microwave background assuming the $\Lambda$CDM cosmological model has persisted, turning into an important problem. An emergent underlying trend is that this Hubble tension is driven by data confined to the very low-redshift Universe (typically $z < 0.15$). Most intermediate-redshift measurements remain mutually consistent with $H_0^\mathrm{CMB}$, the $\Lambda$CDM expectation anchored by the CMB. This Perspective examines if a large local void can explain the Hubble tension and its appearance only at low $z$. For an observer residing within a large underdensity, such as the Milky Way inside the claimed KBC void, gravitationally induced outflows and redshift can inflate the locally inferred recession scale $cz'$ despite having $H_0 = H_0^\mathrm{CMB}$. We summarise evidence suggestive of a local underdensity from multi-wavelength galaxy number counts, discuss the dynamical requirements implied by the amplitude of inferred bulk flows, and connect the solution to the emerging low-redshift BAO distance anomaly ($\alpha_{\mathrm{iso}} < 1$). Previously published semi-analytic void models anticipated the observed redshift dependence of BAO deviations and predict a rapid convergence to CMB-consistent expansion for $z \gtrsim 0.2$, aligning with reconstructions of $H_0(z)$ from BAO plus uncalibrated Type Ia supernovae. We conclude by looking to future tests, including improved mapping of the local density and velocity field, fits to galaxy distance catalogues at the field level, kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich constraints on coherent outflows, fast radio bursts, and the long-term prospect of redshift drift measurements as a direct probe of time-varying non-cosmological redshift contributions.