A Comparative Simulation Study of the Fairness and Accuracy of Predictive Policing Systems in Baltimore City

TL;DR

This study compares the fairness and accuracy of predictive policing systems in Baltimore through simulations, revealing complex bias dynamics and highlighting the importance of city-specific evaluations for understanding long-term impacts.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive simulation methodology for evaluating predictive policing fairness and accuracy, highlighting differences from traditional hot spots policing and revealing complex bias behaviors.

Findings

Predictive policing is more fair and accurate than hot spots policing in the short term.

Bias in predictive policing can lead to over-policing in White neighborhoods.

Predictive policing amplifies bias faster over time, potentially causing worse long-term effects.

Abstract

There are ongoing discussions about predictive policing systems, such as those deployed in Los Angeles, California and Baltimore, Maryland, being unfair, for example, by exhibiting racial bias. Studies found that unfairness may be due to feedback loops and being trained on historically biased recorded data. However, comparative studies on predictive policing systems are few and are not sufficiently comprehensive. In this work, we perform a comprehensive comparative simulation study on the fairness and accuracy of predictive policing technologies in Baltimore. Our results suggest that the situation around bias in predictive policing is more complex than was previously assumed. While predictive policing exhibited bias due to feedback loops as was previously reported, we found that the traditional alternative, hot spots policing, had similar issues. Predictive policing was found to be more fair and accurate than hot spots policing in the short term, although it amplified bias faster, suggesting the potential for worse long-run behavior. In Baltimore, in some cases the bias in these systems tended toward over-policing in White neighborhoods, unlike in previous studies. Overall, this work demonstrates a methodology for city-specific evaluation and behavioral-tendency comparison of predictive policing systems, showing how such simulations can reveal inequities and long-term tendencies.