What Drives Length of Stay After Elective Spine Surgery? Insights from a Decade of Predictive Modeling

TL;DR

This review analyzes a decade of predictive modeling studies for hospital length of stay after elective spine surgery, highlighting machine learning's superior performance and the need for standardization and validation.

Contribution

It systematically synthesizes computational methods used in predicting length of stay, emphasizing the performance of machine learning models and identifying key predictors.

Findings

Machine learning models outperform traditional statistical models.

Common predictors include age, comorbidities, BMI, and surgery details.

External validation and reporting practices are inconsistent.

Abstract

Objective: Predicting length of stay after elective spine surgery is essential for optimizing patient outcomes and hospital resource use. This systematic review synthesizes computational methods used to predict length of stay in this patient population, highlighting model performance and key predictors. Methods: Following PRISMA guidelines, we systematically searched PubMed, Google Scholar, and ACM Digital Library for studies published between December 1st, 2015, and December 1st, 2024. Eligible studies applied statistical or machine learning models to predict length of stay for elective spine surgery patients. Three reviewers independently screened studies and extracted data. Results: Out of 1,263 screened studies, 29 studies met inclusion criteria. Length of stay was predicted as a continuous, binary, or percentile-based outcome. Models included logistic regression, random forest, boosting algorithms, and neural networks. Machine learning models consistently outperformed traditional statistical models, with AUCs ranging from 0.94 to 0.99. K-Nearest Neighbors and Naive Bayes achieved top performance in some studies. Common predictors included age, comorbidities (notably hypertension and diabetes), BMI, type and duration of surgery, and number of spinal levels. However, external validation and reporting practices varied widely across studies. Discussion: There is growing interest in artificial intelligence and machine learning in length of stay prediction, but lack of standardization and external validation limits clinical utility. Future studies should prioritize standardized outcome definitions and transparent reporting needed to advance real-world deployment. Conclusion: Machine learning models offer strong potential for length of stay prediction after elective spine surgery, highlighting their potential for improving discharge planning and hospital resource management.