The Impact of Uncertainty Visualization on Trust in Thematic Maps

TL;DR

This study empirically examines how visualizing uncertainty in thematic maps affects user trust, revealing that higher uncertainty levels generally decrease trust, especially at medium and high levels, while low uncertainty visualization has minimal impact.

Contribution

The paper provides the first empirical evidence on the effect of uncertainty visualization levels on trust in thematic maps, highlighting nuanced impacts on perceived accuracy and integrity.

Findings

Higher uncertainty visualization reduces trust more at medium and high levels.

Low uncertainty visualization does not significantly affect trust compared to no uncertainty.

Uncertainty visualization influences perceived accuracy more than perceived integrity.

Abstract

Thematic maps are widely used to communicate spatial patterns to non-expert audiences. Although uncertainty is inherent in thematic map data, it is rarely visualized, raising questions about how its inclusion affects trust. Prior work offers mixed perspectives: some argue that uncertainty fosters trust through transparency, while others suggest it may reduce trust by introducing confusion. Yet few empirical studies explicitly measure trust in thematic maps. We conducted a between-subjects experiment (N=161) to evaluate how visualizing uncertainty at varying levels (low, medium, high) influences trust. We find that uncertainty visualization generally reduces trust, with greater reductions observed as uncertainty levels increase. However, maps dominated by low uncertainty do not significantly differ in trust from those with no uncertainty. Moreover, while uncertainty visualization tends to make readers question the accuracy of the data, it appears to have a weaker influence on perceptions of the mapmaker's integrity.