Rate-induced tipping in a solvable model with the Allee effect

TL;DR

This paper introduces an exactly solvable model with the Allee effect to study rate-induced tipping, providing explicit solutions, stability conditions, and a numerical method, with applications to fisheries dynamics.

Contribution

It presents a novel solvable ODE model incorporating the Allee effect for analyzing rate-induced tipping with explicit solutions and stability analysis.

Findings

Derived an integral inequality as a necessary condition for tipping

Developed a stable cubature numerical method outperforming Euler

Applied the model to fisheries population dynamics in Japan

Abstract

We present a novel exactly solvable ordinary differential equation model for rate-induced tipping: a dynamic phenomenon of dynamical systems where a time-dependent parameter triggers the transition of stability of a system. Our model contains an Allee effect that induces a saddle point and admits an explicit solution along with the extinction threshold of a time-dependent Allee parameter. More specifically, we derive an integral inequality that serves as a necessary condition for the occurrence of rate-induced tipping. A remarkable point in the proposed model is that it can handle population extinction such that the solution completely vanishes in a finite amount of time. An unconditionally stable cubature method suitable for our model is proposed, and its superiority over the classical forward Euler method is discussed. We also discuss a fisheries application where inland fisheries rose and fell from modern times to the present in Japan. The proposed model serves as a tractable mathematical tool for studying rate-induced tipping phenomena.