Engineering polarization: How contradictory stimulation systematically undermines political moderation

TL;DR

This paper models how stochastic media influence and neural sensitivity differences can destabilize political moderation, leading to a collapse of the moderate population and a shift toward liberal dominance in democratic systems.

Contribution

It extends existing deterministic opinion dynamics models by incorporating stochastic media effects and neural sensitivities, revealing how these factors undermine political moderation.

Findings

Moderate populations collapse under stochastic influence.

System undergoes phase transition to liberal dominance.

Moderation is highly vulnerable to stochastic perturbations.

Abstract

Political moderation, a key attractor in democratic systems, proves highly fragile under realistic information conditions. We develop a stochastic model of opinion dynamics to analyze how noise and differential susceptibility reshape the political spectrum. Extending Marvel et al.'s deterministic framework, we incorporate stochastic media influence $\zeta(t)$ and neuropolitically-grounded sensitivity differences ($\sigma_y > \sigma_x$). Analysis reveals the moderate population -- stable in deterministic models -- undergoes catastrophic collapse under stochastic forcing. This occurs through an effective deradicalization asymmetry ($u_{B}^{\text{eff}} = u + \sigma_y^2/2 > u_{A}^{\text{eff}}$) that drives conservatives to extinction, eliminating cross-cutting interactions that sustain moderates. The system exhibits a phase transition from multi-stable coexistence to liberal dominance, demonstrating how information flow architecture -- independent of content -- systematically dismantles the political center. Our findings reveal moderation as an emergent property highly vulnerable to stochastic perturbations in complex social systems.