Hot Days, Unsafe Schools? The Impact of Heat on School Shootings

TL;DR

This study finds that higher temperatures significantly increase the incidence of school shootings, especially during non-class periods, with implications for future climate-related safety costs in schools.

Contribution

It provides the first empirical evidence linking heat to school shootings and estimates future impacts under climate change scenarios.

Findings

School shootings increase by 90% on hot days above 90°F.

Shootings during non-class periods more than triple on hot days.

Estimated social costs of shootings reach hundreds of millions of dollars by mid-century.

Abstract

Using data on shootings in U.S.\ K--12 schools from 1981 to 2022, we estimate the effect of temperature on school shootings and assess climate-change impacts. We find that days with maximum temperatures above 90$^{\circ}$F increase school shooting incidence by approximately 90\% relative to days with maximum temperatures below 70$^{\circ}$F. The response is concentrated in interpersonal incidents and in non-class periods, such as before school, dismissal, after school, and lunch: shootings during these periods more than triple on days with maximum temperatures above 90$^{\circ}$F, while shootings during class time show no detectable temperature response. The estimated effects are positive for both indoor and outdoor shootings and are larger for shootings involving fatalities or injuries than for shootings involving only minor or no injuries. Applying the estimated dose-response to future warming, we estimate that interpersonal school shootings increase by 6\% by mid-century (2051--2060) under moderate emissions (SSP2--4.5) and 8\% under high emissions (SSP5--8.5), or about 12 and 16 additional incidents per decade. The present discounted value of mid-century social costs is \$599 million under SSP2--4.5 and \$799 million under SSP5--8.5, driven primarily by lost lifetime earnings among exposed students. The results suggest that climate damages in schools may include rare but high-cost safety events, not only heat stress and learning losses.