Machine learning based radiative parameterization scheme and its performance in operational reforecast experiments

TL;DR

This paper develops a machine learning-based radiative parameterization scheme using a residual CNN to emulate radiative transfer in operational weather models, achieving comparable accuracy with significantly improved computational efficiency.

Contribution

It introduces a hybrid framework embedding deep neural networks into numerical models, addressing coupling and stability issues for operational use.

Findings

Achieves eightfold faster computation speed.

Maintains accuracy comparable to traditional schemes.

Demonstrates stability in two-month reforecast experiments.

Abstract

Radiation is typically the most time-consuming physical process in numerical models. One solution is to use machine learning methods to simulate the radiation process to improve computational efficiency. From an operational standpoint, this study investigates critical limitations inherent to hybrid forecasting frameworks that embed deep neural networks into numerical prediction models, with a specific focus on two fundamental bottlenecks: coupling compatibility and long-term integration stability. A residual convolutional neural network is employed to approximate the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for General Circulation Models (RRTMG) within the global operational system of China Meteorological Administration. We adopted an offline training and online coupling approach. First, a comprehensive dataset is generated through model simulations, encompassing all atmospheric columns both with and without cloud cover. To ensure the stability of the hybrid model, the dataset is enhanced via experience replay, and additional output constraints based on physical significance are imposed. Meanwhile, a LibTorch-based coupling method is utilized, which is more suitable for real-time operational computations. The hybrid model is capable of performing ten-day integrated forecasts as required. A two-month operational reforecast experiment demonstrates that the machine learning emulator achieves accuracy comparable to that of the traditional physical scheme, while accelerating the computation speed by approximately eightfold.