Continuous-Time Modelling of Black Hole Binary Evolution with Neural ODEs

TL;DR

This paper introduces a neural ODE-based surrogate model trained on N-body simulations to efficiently predict the long-term evolution and merger timescales of black hole binaries, aiding gravitational wave background analysis.

Contribution

The paper presents a parameterized neural ODE model conditioned on initial parameters, accurately emulating BHB evolution across a range of conditions, reducing computational costs compared to direct N-body simulations.

Findings

PNODE accurately reproduces orbital evolution metrics.

The model generalizes modestly to unseen high-resolution cases.

Predicted merger timescales align with direct simulation results.

Abstract

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) can detect the low-frequency stochastic gravitational-wave background (GWB) generated by an ensemble of supermassive black hole binaries (BHBs). Accurate determination of BHB merger timescales is essential for interpreting GWBs and constraining key astrophysical quantities such as black hole (BH) occupation fractions and galaxy coalescence rates. High-accuracy $N$-body codes such as \texttt{Griffin} can resolve sub-pc BHB dynamics but are too costly to explore a wide range of initial conditions, motivating the need for surrogate models that emulate their long-term evolution at much lower computational cost. We investigate neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) as surrogates for the secular orbital evolution of BHBs. Our primary contribution is a parameterised NODE (PNODE) trained on an ensemble of $N$-body simulations of galaxy mergers spanning a two-dimensional parameter space defined by the initial orbital eccentricity and particle resolution $(e_i, N)$, with the learned vector field explicitly conditioned on these parameters. A single PNODE thereby learns a simulation-parameter-conditioned dynamical model for the coupled evolution of the BH pair's orbital state across the ensemble, yielding smooth trajectories from which stable hardening and eccentricity growth rates can be extracted. The PNODE accurately reproduces the secular evolution of the specific orbital energy and angular momentum, and the corresponding Keplerian orbital elements, for held-out trajectories, with modest generalisation to a partially unseen high-resolution case. Combining PNODE predictions with semi-analytical prescriptions for stellar hardening and gravitational-wave emission yields BHB merger timescales consistent with those obtained from direct $N$-body inputs within current theoretical uncertainties.