Optimisation of complex product innovation processes based on trend models with three-valued logic

TL;DR

This paper presents a novel approach to optimizing complex product innovation processes by modeling heuristics with simple trend-based logic, avoiding numerical data and enabling scenario analysis through transition graphs.

Contribution

It introduces a trend model framework using three-valued logic to represent heuristics, facilitating scenario-based analysis of innovation processes.

Findings

Trend models effectively capture heuristic behaviors.

Transition graphs enable comprehensive scenario analysis.

Approach simplifies complex process modeling.

Abstract

This paper investigates complex product-innovation processes using models grounded in a set of heuristics. Each heuristic is expressed through simple trends -- increasing, decreasing, or constant -- which serve as minimally information-intensive quantifiers, avoiding reliance on numerical values or rough sets. A solution to a trend model is defined as a set of scenarios with possible transitions between them, represented by a transition graph. Any possible future or past behaviour of the system under study can thus be depicted by a path within this graph.