Meta Dynamic Graph for Traffic Flow Prediction

TL;DR

This paper introduces Meta Dynamic Graph (MetaDG), a novel framework that models complex spatio-temporal dependencies in traffic flow prediction by leveraging dynamic graph structures and meta-parameters, improving flexibility and accuracy.

Contribution

MetaDG extends dynamic modeling beyond topology and unifies spatio-temporal heterogeneity modeling into a single framework, addressing key limitations of previous methods.

Findings

MetaDG outperforms existing methods on four real-world datasets.

Dynamic adjacency matrices effectively capture spatio-temporal changes.

Unified modeling improves traffic prediction accuracy.

Abstract

Traffic flow prediction is a typical spatio-temporal prediction problem and has a wide range of applications. The core challenge lies in modeling the underlying complex spatio-temporal dependencies. Various methods have been proposed, and recent studies show that the modeling of dynamics is useful to meet the core challenge. While handling spatial dependencies and temporal dependencies using separate base model structures may hinder the modeling of spatio-temporal correlations, the modeling of dynamics can bridge this gap. Incorporating spatio-temporal heterogeneity also advances the main goal, since it can extend the parameter space and allow more flexibility. Despite these advances, two limitations persist: 1) the modeling of dynamics is often limited to the dynamics of spatial topology (e.g., adjacency matrix changes), which, however, can be extended to a broader scope; 2) the modeling of heterogeneity is often separated for spatial and temporal dimensions, but this gap can also be bridged by the modeling of dynamics. To address the above limitations, we propose a novel framework for traffic prediction, called Meta Dynamic Graph (MetaDG). MetaDG leverages dynamic graph structures of node representations to explicitly model spatio-temporal dynamics. This generates both dynamic adjacency matrices and meta-parameters, extending dynamic modeling beyond topology while unifying the capture of spatio-temporal heterogeneity into a single dimension. Extensive experiments on four real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of MetaDG.