Estimating the effect of lymphovascular invasion on 2-year survival probability under endogeneity: a recursive copula-based approach

TL;DR

This paper introduces a semiparametric recursive copula method to accurately estimate the impact of lymphovascular invasion on 2-year survival in head and neck cancer, addressing endogeneity and censoring issues.

Contribution

It develops a novel copula-based framework that handles endogenous exposures and censored outcomes without relying on strong instruments, improving bias reduction and robustness.

Findings

LVI reduces 2-year survival probability by about 47%.

The method outperforms traditional approaches in simulations.

Application to TCGA data confirms significant LVI effect.

Abstract

Lymphovascular invasion (LVI) is an important prognostic marker for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSC), but the true effect of LVI on survival may be distorted by endogeneity arising from unmeasured confounding. Conventional one-stage conditional models and instrument-based two-stage estimators are prone to bias under endogeneity, and sufficiently strong instruments are often unavailable in practice. To address these challenges, we propose a semiparametric recursive copula framework that jointly specifies marginal models for both LVI, treated as an endogenous exposure, and a binary 2-year survival outcome, and links them through a flexible copula to account for latent confounding and accommodate censoring without requiring strong instruments. In two simulation studies, we systematically varied sample sizes, censoring rates from 0% to 60%, and endogeneity strengths, and assessed robustness under moderate model misspecification. The proposed copula framework exhibited reduced bias and improved interval coverage compared with both one-stage and two-stage approaches while maintaining robustness to moderate misspecification. We applied the method to HNSC cases with associated clinical and microRNA data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (n = 215), and found that LVI significantly reduced 2-year survival probability by approximately 47%, with a 95% confidence interval of -0.61 to -0.29 on the probability scale. The estimated positive dependence parameter indicates that the attenuation is driven by residual dependence between unobserved components of LVI and survival. Overall, the proposed copula framework yields more credible effect estimates for survival outcomes in the absence of strong instruments, mitigating biases due to endogeneity and censoring and strengthening quantitative evidence for HNSC research.