Journal Impact Factor and Federal Reserve Monetary Policy: An Econometric Analysis Based on 1975-2026

TL;DR

This study analyzes the relationship between Journal Impact Factor and Federal Reserve monetary policy from 1975 to 2026, revealing a significant negative correlation during the quantitative easing period and highlighting the influence of macroeconomic factors on academic publishing.

Contribution

It provides the first econometric evidence linking monetary policy to Journal Impact Factor changes over a long historical period.

Findings

Significant negative correlation between IF and real interest rate during 2001-2020

Real interest rate and time trends explain 89.3% of IF variation

No significant relationship in 1975-2000

Abstract

The Journal Impact Factor (IF), as a core indicator of academic evaluation, has not been systematically studied in relation to its historical evolution and global macroeconomic environment. This paper employs a period-based regression analysis using long-term time series data from 1975-2026 to examine the statistical relationship between IF and Federal Reserve monetary policy (using real interest rate as a proxy variable). The study estimates three nested models using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS): (1) a baseline linear model, (2) a linear model controlling for time trends, and (3) a log-transformed model. Empirical results show that: (i) in the early period (1975-2000), there is no significant statistical relationship between IF and real interest rate ($p>0.1$); (ii) during the quantitative easing period (2001-2020), they exhibit a significant negative correlation ($\beta=-0.069$, $p<0.01$), meaning that for every 1 percentage point decrease in real interest rate, IF increases by approximately 6.9\%; (iii) the adjusted $R^2$ of the full-sample model reaches 0.893, indicating that real interest rate and time trends can explain 89.3\% of IF variation. This finding reveals the indirect impact of monetary policy on the academic publishing system through multiple channels such as research funding and journal pricing power, providing econometric evidence for understanding the phenomenon of "financialization of academic capital." This study not only enriches the literature on monetary policy transmission mechanisms but also provides a new perspective for valuation analysis of the academic publishing industry.