Origin of asteroid (469219) Kamo`oalewa: the main asteroid belt or the Giordano Bruno crater on the Moon?

TL;DR

This study estimates the origins of asteroid Kamo`oalewa, concluding it most likely originated from the main asteroid belt rather than the Moon's Giordano Bruno crater, based on population modeling and survey simulations.

Contribution

The paper provides quantitative estimates of Kamo`oalewa-like objects' origins, favoring main belt origin over lunar ejecta, using NEA models and survey efficiency analysis.

Findings

Main belt accounts for approximately 1.23 Kamo`oalewa-like objects.

Giordano Bruno ejecta contributes less than 0.05 objects.

Survey simulations align with known NEA populations.

Abstract

Asteroid Kamo`oalewa is the target of the Tianwen-2 sample-return mission by CNSA. Because of its orbit and its spectral properties, it was proposed that Kamo`oalewa originated from the Moon as impact ejecta, possibly from the Giordano Bruno crater. We aim at estimating the relative contribution of Kamo`oalewa-like objects originating from the general near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population which originated in the main asteroid belt, and compare it with the relative contribution of Giordano Bruno ejecta. We first estimate the average fraction of quasi-satellite orbits at any given time. By using recently developed NEA population models, we extract the expected number of Earth co-orbitals of the same size of Kamo`oalewa, and then get an estimate of the average number of Kamo`oalewa-like objects using the fraction computed before. Similarly, we obtain an estimate for the number of Kamo`oalewa-like objects that may originate as ejecta from the Giordano Bruno impact. We also performed survey simulations to estimate their efficiency in the detection of Kamo`oalewa-like objects. We found that the main belt accounts for 1.23 \pm 0.13 Kamo`oalewa-like objects on average. The expected number of Kamo`oalewa-like objects originated as Giordano Bruno ejecta is 0.042, which is more than order of magnitude smaller. We found a discovery efficiency of Earth quasi-satellites between 95% and 70% for absolute magnitude between 22 and 25 for the Pan-STARRS survey, and population models show that this is in agreement with the known population. The Vera Rubin Observatory should reach an efficiency of 92% down to absolute magnitude 25. These estimates show that population models of NEAs are capable to account for Kamo`oalewa-like objects, thus supporting the hypothesis that that Kamo'oalewa originated from the main belt. This will be further investigated by the in-situ exploration of the Tianwen-2 mission.