Large earthquakes follow highly unequal ones

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that large earthquakes tend to follow highly unequal seismic events, suggesting that monitoring inequality indices like Gini and Kolkata can serve as early indicators of criticality and potential major quakes.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach of using inequality measures to predict large earthquakes based on seismic data and models, linking criticality theory to earthquake forecasting.

Findings

Large earthquakes tend to follow highly unequal events.

Inequality indices can serve as indicators of proximity to criticality.

Monitoring inequality can improve hazard prediction.

Abstract

It was conjectured for a long time that the tectonic plates are in a self-organized state of criticality and that the Gutenberg-Richter law is a manifestation of that. It was recently shown that for a system near criticality, the inequality of their responses due to external driving would sharply rise and show universal behavior that could indicate proximity of the system to a critical point. As a result, measures such as the Gini and Kolkata indices that quantify inequality, can also serve as indicators of imminent criticallity and that of diverging (system spanning) responses. In the context of earthquakes, such a large response would correspond to events of high magnitudes. In this work, we show with numerical simulations and seismic data analysis that large earthquake events have a tendency to follow events that are highly unequal, similar to the case of a system near a critical point. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of the inequality indices of the earthquake time series could be useful for hazard estimates. We have applied this framework to models of earthquakes as well as to the earthquake time series from various tectonically active regions, such as North America, Southern Japan, parts of South-East Asia and Indonesia. The findings also indicate a quantitative estimate of the distance from criticality, when the tectonic plates are viewed as a self-organized critical system.