Modeling and analysis of a novel two-strain dengue epidemics model considering secondary infections with increased mortality

TL;DR

This paper develops a detailed mathematical model of dengue transmission considering secondary infections, ADE, and vector co-infection, revealing complex dynamics like backward bifurcation and oscillations that inform control strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a novel two-strain dengue model incorporating immuno-epidemiological mechanisms and analyzes its complex bifurcation behaviors using advanced mathematical tools.

Findings

Backward bifurcation occurs under ADE conditions.

Multiple stable states including disease-free and endemic coexist.

Oscillatory dynamics emerge from Hopf bifurcations.

Abstract

In this study, we develop and analyze a deterministic two-strain host-vector model for dengue transmission that incorporates key immuno-epidemiological mechanisms, including temporary cross-immunity, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), disease-induced mortality during secondary infections, and explicit vector co-infection. The human population is divided into compartments for primary and secondary infections, while the mosquito population includes single- and co-infected classes. ADE is modeled through distinct primary ($\alpha$) and secondary ($\sigma$) transmission rates. Using the next-generation matrix method, we derive the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and establish the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium for $R_0 < 1$. Analytical results show that one-strain endemic equilibria lose stability under ADE conditions ($\sigma > \alpha$), allowing invasion by a heterologous strain. Employing center-manifold theory and numerical continuation (COCO), we demonstrate the occurrence of backward bifurcation, bistability between disease-free and endemic states, and Hopf-induced oscillations. Numerical simulations confirm transitions among disease-free, endemic, and periodic regimes as key parameters vary. The model highlights how ADE, waning cross-immunity, and vector co-infection interact to generate complex dengue dynamics and provides insights useful for designing effective control and vaccination strategies in dengue-endemic regions.