Learning Minimally-Congested Drive Times from Sparse Open Networks: A Lightweight RF-Based Estimator for Urban Roadway Operations

TL;DR

This paper introduces a lightweight, RF-based estimator for minimally-congested urban travel times that leverages open network data and sparse features within a random forest framework, improving prediction accuracy over simple baselines.

Contribution

It presents a novel approach combining open data, sparse operational features, and machine learning to accurately estimate minimally-congested travel times at scale.

Findings

Significant error reduction over baseline traversal times

Stable predictions with minimal overfitting in urban settings

Effective in resource-constrained environments

Abstract

Accurate roadway travel-time prediction is foundational to transportation systems analysis, yet widespread reliance on either data-intensive congestion models or overly na\"ive heuristics limits scalability and practical adoption in engineering workflows. This paper develops a lightweight estimator for minimally-congested car travel times that integrates open road-network data, speed constraints, and sparse control/turn features within a random forest framework to correct bias from shortest-path traversal-time baselines. Using an urban testbed, the pipeline: (i) constructs drivable networks from volunteered geographic data; (ii) solves Dijkstra routes minimizing edge traversal time; (iii) derives sparse operational features (signals, stops, crossings, yield, roundabouts; left/right/slight/U-turn counts); and (iv) trains a regression ensemble on limited high-quality reference times to generalize predictions beyond the training set. Out-of-sample evaluation demonstrates marked improvements over traversal-time baselines across mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, mean squared error, relative bias, and explained variance, with no significant mean bias under minimally congested conditions and consistent k-fold stability indicating negligible overfitting. The resulting approach offers a practical middle ground for transportation engineering: it preserves point-to-point fidelity at metropolitan scale, reduces resource requirements, and supplies defensible performance estimates where congestion feeds are inaccessible or cost-prohibitive, supporting planning, accessibility, and network performance applications under low-traffic operating regimes.