Homeostasis Under Technological Transition: How High-Friction Universities Adapt Through Early Filtering Rather Than Reconfiguration

TL;DR

This study shows that universities tend to maintain stable program hierarchies despite technological changes, primarily adapting through early persistence adjustments rather than rapid curricular reconfiguration, due to regulatory and systemic constraints.

Contribution

It reveals that institutional stability in universities persists over decades, with technological transitions absorbed mainly through persistence dynamics rather than structural reorganization.

Findings

Program rankings remain stable over time.

Enrolment composition changes are delayed.

Macroeconomic volatility affects attrition and masking signals.

Abstract

Universities are widely expected to respond to technological transitions through rapid reconfiguration of programme demand and curricular supply. Using four decades of longitudinal administrative cohorts (1980-2019) from a large public university, we examine whether technological change is translated into observable shifts in programme hierarchy, or instead absorbed by institutional mechanisms that preserve structural stability. We show that programme rankings by entrant volume remain remarkably stable over time, while the translation of technological transitions into enrolment composition occurs with substantial delay. Short-run adjustment appears primarily in early persistence dynamics: attrition reacts sooner than choice, and "growth" in entrants can coexist with declining early survival - producing false winners in which expansion is decoupled from persistence. Macroeconomic volatility amplifies attrition and compresses between-programme differences, masking technological signals that would otherwise be interpreted as preference shifts. To explain why stability dominates responsiveness, we situate these patterns within nationally regulated constraints governing engineering education - minimum total hours and mandated practice intensity - which materially limit the speed of curricular adaptation (Ministerio de Educacion, 2021; Ley de Educacion Superior, 1995). National system metrics further support the plausibility of a high-friction equilibrium in which large inflows coexist with standardised outputs (Secretaria de Politicas Universitarias [SPU], 2022). These findings suggest that apparent rigidity is not an anomaly but the predictable outcome of a system optimised for stability over responsiveness.