AI-exposed jobs deteriorated before ChatGPT

TL;DR

This study shows that AI-exposed jobs experienced increased unemployment risks before ChatGPT's release, with educational trends indicating ongoing shifts in AI-related employment and skills.

Contribution

It provides evidence that AI-related job risks and educational impacts began prior to ChatGPT, challenging the narrative that ChatGPT was the primary catalyst.

Findings

Unemployment risk in AI-exposed jobs rose before late 2022.

Lower entry rates into AI-exposed jobs for cohorts from 2021 onward.

Higher initial pay and shorter job searches for graduates with AI-exposed curricula.

Abstract

Public debate links worsening job prospects for AI-exposed occupations to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using monthly U.S. unemployment insurance records, we measure occupation- and location-specific unemployment risk and find that risk rose in AI-exposed occupations beginning in early 2022, months before ChatGPT. Analyzing millions of LinkedIn profiles, we show that graduate cohorts from 2021 onward entered AI-exposed jobs at lower rates than earlier cohorts, with gaps opening before late 2022. Finally, from millions of university syllabi, we find that graduates taking more AI-exposed curricula had higher first-job pay and shorter job searches after ChatGPT. Together, these results point to forces pre-dating generative AI and to the ongoing value of LLM-relevant education.