Forward-Oriented Causal Observables for Non-Stationary Financial Markets

TL;DR

This paper develops a method for constructing interpretable, causal signals from micro-features for short-term forecasting in non-stationary financial markets, emphasizing online computability and regime-specific relevance.

Contribution

It introduces a novel causal signal construction combining centering, aggregation, stabilization, and adaptive operators, tailored for real-time financial decision-making.

Findings

Causally constructed observables show significant economic relevance in certain market regimes.

The method's effectiveness diminishes after regime shifts, indicating limitations in non-stationary environments.

Application to high-frequency EURUSDT data demonstrates practical utility and challenges.

Abstract

We study short-horizon forecasting in financial time series under strict causal constraints, treating the market as a non-stationary stochastic system in which any predictive observable must be computable online from information available up to the decision time. Rather than proposing a machine-learning predictor or a direct price-forecast model, we focus on \emph{constructing} an interpretable causal signal from heterogeneous micro-features that encode complementary aspects of the dynamics (momentum, volume pressure, trend acceleration, and volatility-normalized price location). The construction combines (i) causal centering, (ii) linear aggregation into a composite observable, (iii) causal stabilization via a one-dimensional Kalman filter, and (iv) an adaptive ``forward-like'' operator that mixes the composite signal with a smoothed causal derivative term. The resulting observable is mapped into a transparent decision functional and evaluated through realized cumulative returns and turnover. An application to high-frequency EURUSDT (1-minute) illustrates that causally constructed observables can exhibit substantial economic relevance in specific regimes, while degrading under subsequent regime shifts, highlighting both the potential and the limitations of causal signal design in non-stationary markets.