A Multi-Agent Retrieval-Augmented Framework for Work-in-Progress Predictio

TL;DR

This paper introduces a retrieval-augmented, multi-agent framework for Work-in-Progress prediction that combines semantic story generation, dynamic retrieval, and collaborative reasoning to improve accuracy and robustness in process monitoring.

Contribution

It presents a novel multi-agent framework integrating retrieval-augmented generation and reasoning for WiP prediction, outperforming traditional models on benchmark datasets.

Findings

Achieved a MAPE of 1.50% on one dataset.

Outperformed TCN, LSTM, and persistence baselines.

Demonstrated improved robustness and prediction accuracy.

Abstract

Work-in-Progress (WiP) prediction is critical for predictive process monitoring, enabling accurate anticipation of workload fluctuations and optimized operational planning. This paper proposes a retrieval-augmented, multi-agent framework that combines retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) and collaborative multi-agent reasoning for WiP prediction. The narrative generation component transforms structured event logs into semantically rich natural language stories, which are embedded into a semantic vector-based process memory to facilitate dynamic retrieval of historical context during inference. The framework includes predictor agents that independently leverage retrieved historical contexts and a decision-making assistant agent that extracts high-level descriptive signals from recent events. A fusion agent then synthesizes predictions using ReAct-style reasoning over agent outputs and retrieved narratives. We evaluate our framework on two real-world benchmark datasets. Results show that the proposed retrieval-augmented multi-agent approach achieves competitive prediction accuracy, obtaining a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 1.50\% on one dataset, and surpassing Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and persistence baselines. The results highlight improved robustness, demonstrating the effectiveness of integrating retrieval mechanisms and multi-agent reasoning in WiP prediction.