Towards a Statistical Validation of the Critical Wave Groups Method for Free-Running Vessels in Beam Seas

TL;DR

This paper extends the Critical Wave Groups method to account for free-running vessels with 6-DoF, providing a statistical validation that aligns with Monte Carlo simulations for vessels in beam seas.

Contribution

It introduces a new extension of the CWG method for free-running vessels and demonstrates its validity against Monte Carlo results.

Findings

CWG method produces comparable probability estimates to Monte Carlo simulations.

Extension successfully accounts for vessel motion with six degrees of freedom.

First formal validation of CWG for free-running vessel scenarios.

Abstract

Research on the statistics of extreme events using deterministic wave group methods has largely been simplified to vessels at zero or constant speed and heading. In contrast, free-running vessels move with six degrees-of-freedom (6-DoF), leading to more complex and varied extreme response events. This paper details the extension of the Critical Wave Groups (CWG) method to free-running vessels and demonstrates that the method produces probability calculations comparable to those from a limited Monte Carlo dataset for a vessel in beam seas. This research is a critical first step in the formal validation of this free-running implementation of the CWG method.