OpComm: A Reinforcement Learning Framework for Adaptive Buffer Control in Warehouse Volume Forecasting

TL;DR

OpComm is a novel framework combining supervised learning, reinforcement learning, and generative AI to improve warehouse volume forecasting, reduce errors, and enhance decision-making transparency in last-mile logistics.

Contribution

It introduces a combined approach of demand forecasting, buffer control via reinforcement learning, and AI-driven interpretability for operational logistics.

Findings

Reduced WAPE by 21.65% across 400+ stations

Lowered under-buffering incidents significantly

Enhanced transparency with AI-generated summaries

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of package volumes at delivery stations is critical for last-mile logistics, where errors lead to inefficient resource allocation, higher costs, and delivery delays. We propose OpComm, a forecasting and decision-support framework that combines supervised learning with reinforcement learning-based buffer control and a generative AI-driven communication module. A LightGBM regression model generates station-level demand forecasts, which serve as context for a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent that selects buffer levels from a discrete action set. The reward function penalizes under-buffering more heavily than over-buffering, reflecting real-world trade-offs between unmet demand risks and resource inefficiency. Station outcomes are fed back through a Monte Carlo update mechanism, enabling continual policy adaptation. To enhance interpretability, a generative AI layer produces executive-level summaries and scenario analyses grounded in SHAP-based feature attributions. Across 400+ stations, OpComm reduced Weighted Absolute Percentage Error (WAPE) by 21.65% compared to manual forecasts, while lowering under-buffering incidents and improving transparency for decision-makers. This work shows how contextual reinforcement learning, coupled with predictive modeling, can address operational forecasting challenges and bridge statistical rigor with practical decision-making in high-stakes logistics environments.