Residential structure survivability to large wildfires in the United States

TL;DR

This study analyzes wildfire impacts on US homes from 2001 to 2020, revealing regional differences in survivability influenced by structural age, fuels, and weather, and suggests strategies to improve resilience.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of factors affecting residential survivability during wildfires across the US, highlighting regional trends and influencing variables.

Findings

Survivability declined by 10% in the Western US over two decades.

Homes built after 1990 have higher survivability in the West.

Survivability is lowest in forests and during extreme fire weather conditions.

Abstract

Wildfire impacts on US communities have escalated in recent decades, highlighting the need to better understand factors that influence wildfire outcomes. We find that 567,000 homes were exposed to wildfires across the contiguous US during 2001-2020, two-thirds of which occurred and increased five-fold in the Western US. While residential structure survivability - the percent of structures within a wildfire perimeter that survive the fire - remained stable in the Eastern US in the past two decades, it declined by 10% in the West. Survivability was explained by structural age, surrounding fuels, and fire weather. Survivability was 87% for homes built pre-1990 compared to 92% for post-1990 homes in the West. Survivability was lowest in forests compared to grasslands and shrublands. Finally, survivability was markedly lower for fires coincident with extreme fire weather. Our results suggest that modern building codes, fuel management, and proactive planning can strengthen wildfire resilience.