Analysing Skill Predominance in Generalized Fantasy Cricket

TL;DR

This paper investigates whether skill or chance determines success in fantasy cricket by analyzing a new contest framework through simulations and real IPL data, finding that strategic skill significantly influences outcomes.

Contribution

It introduces a novel limited-selection contest model and demonstrates that strategic team selection provides a measurable skill advantage over random choices.

Findings

Strategic team selection outperforms random choice.

Skill advantage persists despite stochastic variability.

Team composition and participant behavior influence winning probabilities.

Abstract

In fantasy sports, strategic thinking-not mere luck-often defines who wins and who falls short. As fantasy cricket grows in popularity across India, understanding whether success stems from skill or chance has become both an analytical and regulatory question. This study introduces a new limited-selection contest framework in which participants choose from four expert-designed teams and share prizes based on the highest cumulative score. By combining simulation experiments with real performance data from the 2024 Indian Premier League (IPL), we evaluate whether measurable skill emerges within this structure. Results reveal that strategic and informed team selection consistently outperforms random choice, underscoring a clear skill advantage that persists despite stochastic variability. The analysis quantifies how team composition, inter-team correlation, and participant behaviour jointly influence winning probabilities, highlighting configurations where skill becomes statistically dominant. These findings provide actionable insights for players seeking to maximise returns through strategy and for platform designers aiming to develop fair, transparent, and engaging skill-based gaming ecosystems that balance competition with regulatory compliance.