Why Locking Up Cartel Members Does not Work

TL;DR

This paper models cartel dynamics to evaluate the effectiveness of incarceration strategies, finding that locking up members prevents less than 10% of crimes and stricter penalties have minimal impact, suggesting rehabilitation may be more effective.

Contribution

It introduces a generational model of cartel participation to quantify the limited impact of incarceration and stricter penalties on reducing cartel crimes.

Findings

Incarceration prevents less than 10% of offences.

Doubling penalties reduces potential by less than 5%.

Rehabilitation could be more effective than incarceration.

Abstract

One of the core strategies to reduce cartel violence is by directly targeting members with law enforcement. Whether targeting leaders, disrupting parts of the organisation, or incarcerating members, the purpose is to reduce the strength of cartels directly. Most security strategies result in increased incarceration rates. Yet its effectiveness in addressing organised crime remains unclear, particularly if it fails to prevent recidivism upon release from jail. Here, a model is constructed to quantify cartel participation across generations, where individuals are recruited, age over time, and exit cartels as victims of a homicide or due to incapacitation, or retirement. Incarcerating cartel members prevents less than 10% of cartel offences. Additionally, doubling penalties would reduce cartel members' potential by less than 5%, thereby challenging proposals for stricter rules. Yet, rehabilitation after prison, often neglected as an integral part of the security strategy, could be more effective in lowering cartel crimes.