Bayesian Markov-Switching Partial Reduced-Rank Regression

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian Markov-switching partial reduced-rank regression model that captures time-varying group structures and complexity levels in multivariate time series, with applications demonstrating its effectiveness.

Contribution

It proposes a novel Bayesian model that simultaneously estimates groupings, ranks, and their temporal dynamics in multivariate regression, incorporating nonparametric and low-rank components.

Findings

Evidence of time-varying grouping structures in data

Different complexity levels across states and within states

Successful application to macroeconomic and commodity data

Abstract

Reduced-Rank (RR) regression is a powerful dimensionality reduction technique but it overlooks any possible group configuration among the responses by assuming a low-rank structure on the entire coefficient matrix. Moreover, the temporal change of the relations between predictors and responses in time series induce a possibly time-varying grouping structure in the responses. To address these limitations, a Bayesian Markov-switching partial RR (MS-PRR) model is proposed, where the response vector is partitioned in two groups to reflect different complexity of the relationship. A \textit{simple} group assumes a low-rank linear regression, while a \textit{complex} group exploits nonparametric regression via a Gaussian Process. Differently from traditional approaches, group assignments and rank are treated as unknown parameters to be estimated. Then temporal persistence in the regression function is accounted for by a Markov-switching process that drives the changes in the grouping structure and model parameters over time. Full Bayesian inference is preformed via a partially collapsed Gibbs sampler, which allows uncertainty quantification without the need for trans-dimensional moves. Applications to two real-world macroeconomic and commodity data demonstrate the evidence of time-varying grouping and different degrees of complexity both across states and within each state.