Fairness, Travel, and Market Potential: An Optimization Framework for NBA Expansion

TL;DR

This paper presents an optimization framework for NBA expansion, balancing travel efficiency, fairness, and market potential through models that evaluate various expansion scenarios and their impacts.

Contribution

It introduces two novel optimization models for NBA expansion planning, integrating travel, fairness, and market considerations to aid strategic decision-making.

Findings

Distance-minimizing model yields geographically tight divisions.

Nash Bargaining model offers more balanced outcomes for isolated teams.

Expansion scenarios can be evaluated for efficiency and fairness trade-offs.

Abstract

The National Basketball Association (NBA) is actively considering the addition of two expansion teams, raising the question of how to restructure its conferences and divisions to balance travel efficiency, fairness, and revenue opportunities. This study fills a gap at the intersection of sports operations and strategic league design by providing a quantitative framework for expansion planning. We develop two optimization models: one minimizing total travel distance and another using a Nash Bargaining framework to balance travel burdens while accounting for media market size. Using data from all 30 current franchises and six candidate cities (Seattle, Las Vegas, Montreal, Vancouver, Tampa, and Mexico City), we evaluate 15 pairwise expansion scenarios under alternative season lengths and divisional formats. Results show that while the distance-minimizing model produces geographically tight divisions, the Nash Bargaining model generates more balanced outcomes, particularly for geographically isolated franchises, with only modest efficiency losses. Our study offers a flexible decision support framework for league executives, policymakers, and sports economists. It provides evidence-based insights into how expansion decisions can balance operational efficiency, fairness in competition, and access to major media markets in a multi-billion-dollar sports league.