Redshift Classification of Optical Gamma-Ray Bursts using Supervised Learning

TL;DR

This paper develops an ensemble machine learning method to classify the redshift of gamma-ray bursts using optical data, improving high-redshift detection and robustness over previous methods.

Contribution

It introduces a novel optical-based classification framework with advanced statistical techniques and publicly releases a real-time web application for GRB redshift prediction.

Findings

Achieves 74% true positive rate at z=2.0

Attains an AUC of 0.84 at z=2.0 and 0.88 at z=3.0

Validation yields 97% accuracy and AUC of 0.93 on independent data

Abstract

Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are among the most luminous explosions in the Universe and serve as powerful probes of the early cosmos. However, the rapid fading of their afterglows and the scarcity of spectroscopic measurements make photometric classification crucial for timely high-redshift identification. We present an ensemble machine learning framework for redshift classification of GRBs based solely on their optical plateau and prompt emission properties. Our dataset comprises 171 long GRBs observed by the Swift UVOT and more than 450 ground-based telescopes. The analysis pipeline integrates robust statistical techniques, including M-estimator outlier rejection, multivariate imputation using Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations, and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator feature selection, followed by a SuperLearner ensemble combining parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric algorithms. The optimal model, trained on raw optical data with outlier removal at a redshift threshold of z equals 2.0, achieves a true positive rate of 74 percent and an area under the curve of 0.84, maintaining balanced generalization between training and test sets. At higher thresholds, such as z equals 3.0, the classifier sustains strong discriminative power with an area under the curve of 0.88. Validation on an independent GRB sample yields 97 percent overall accuracy, perfect specificity, and an ensemble area under the curve of 0.93. Compared to previous prompt- and X-ray-based classifiers, our optical framework offers enhanced sensitivity to high-redshift events, improved robustness against data incompleteness, and greater applicability to ground-based follow-up. We also publicly release a web application that enables real-time redshift classification, facilitating rapid identification of candidate high-redshift GRBs for cosmological studies.