Modeling the Prey-Predator Dynamics of Habu Snakes and Mongooses Leading to Ecological Disaster on Amami Oshima Island in Japan

TL;DR

This paper presents a mathematical model analyzing the ecological impact of mongoose introduction on Amami Oshima Island, highlighting how earlier intervention could have prevented ecological disaster and emphasizing the importance of predictive modeling in ecosystem management.

Contribution

It introduces a novel predator-prey model incorporating multiple species and resources to assess ecological interventions and their long-term effects.

Findings

Earlier mongoose trapping could have prevented ecological imbalance.

Mathematical modeling helps explore alternative conservation strategies.

Sensitivity analysis identifies key factors influencing ecosystem stability.

Abstract

The introduction of mongooses from Indian subcontinent to Amami Oshima Island, Japan, aimed at controlling the population of venomous Habu snakes, has led to significant ecological disruptions, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of the islands biodiversity. To highlight the unintended consequences of such interventions and the necessity of understanding predator-prey dynamics in preserving ecological balance, a mathematical model incorporating snake, mongooses, mouse and natural resources has been proposed to explore their role in the ongoing ecological disaster and analysis the other scenarios if the authorities applied different approaches in place of already implemented strategy. Determining the model's existence and uniqueness, stability at equilibrium points, and state variable characteristics are some of the parts of the analytical analysis of the model. Additionally, sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify sensitive factors. In addition, the Runge-Kutta 4th order has been used to execute the numerical simulations. Our research reveals that although the government began killing and trapping mongooses almost 20 years after their introduction, but if trapping had started just 10 years after their introduction, the outcome could have been drastically different. This time, mongooses would not have been extinct, and their coexistence with other native species would have helped to preserve the ecological balance and prevent the severe ecological damage that is presently being seen. Thus, It is recommended to use mathematical modeling to explore alternatives before decision-making, ensuring sustainable ecosystem management while preventing irreversible impacts of invasive species.