Universal Dynamics of Financial Bubbles in Isolated Markets: Evidence from the Iranian Stock Market

TL;DR

This study demonstrates that the Iranian stock market exhibits universal bubble dynamics similar to global markets, using LPPLS modeling to analyze two major episodes, highlighting endogenous feedback mechanisms even in isolated economies.

Contribution

It provides the first systematic LPPLS analysis of bubbles in the Tehran Stock Exchange, supporting the universality of bubble dynamics across different and isolated markets.

Findings

Estimated critical exponents align with historical bubbles.

LPPLS signatures such as faster-than-exponential growth are evident.

Market dynamics are driven by endogenous herding and feedback, not external shocks.

Abstract

Speculative bubbles exhibit common statistical signatures across many financial markets, suggesting the presence of universal underlying mechanisms. We test this hypothesis in the Iranian stock market, an economy that is highly isolated, subject to capital controls, and largely inaccessible to foreign investors. Using the Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity (LPPLS) model, we analyze two major bubble episodes in 2020 and 2023. The estimated critical exponents beta around 0.46 and 0.20 fall within the empirical ranges documented for canonical historical bubbles such as the 1929 DJIA crash and the 2000 Nasdaq episode. The Tehran Stock Exchange displays clear LPPLS hallmarks, including faster-than-exponential price acceleration, log-periodic corrections, and stable estimates of the critical time horizon. These results indicate that endogenous herding, imitation, and positive-feedback dynamics, rather than exogenous shocks, play a dominant role even in politically and economically isolated markets. By showing that an emerging and semi-closed financial system conforms to the same dynamical patterns observed in global markets, this paper provides new empirical support for the universality of bubble dynamics. To the best of our knowledge, it also presents the first systematic LPPLS analysis of bubbles in the Tehran Stock Exchange. The findings highlight the usefulness of LPPLS-based diagnostic tools for monitoring systemic risk in emerging or restricted economies.