A Modeling and Optimization Framework for Fostering Modal Shift through the Integration of Tradable Credits and Demand-Responsive Autonomous Shuttles

TL;DR

This paper introduces a comprehensive modeling framework that combines tradable credit schemes with demand-responsive autonomous shuttles to optimize multimodal transportation and reduce costs, considering operational constraints and supply responses.

Contribution

It develops a dynamic equilibrium model incorporating operational constraints, waiting times, and adaptive supply management through autonomous shuttles, advancing TCS analysis beyond fixed supply assumptions.

Findings

Joint TCS and DRAS deployment reduces generalized costs.

Modeling operational features improves policy effectiveness.

Flexible supply responses mitigate demand shifts.

Abstract

Tradable Credit Schemes (TCS) promote the use of public and shared transport by capping private car usage while maintaining fair welfare outcomes by allowing credit trading. However, most existing studies assume unlimited public transit capacity or a fixed occupancy of shared modes, often neglecting waiting time and oversimplifying time-based costs by depending solely on in-vehicle travel time. These assumptions can overstate the system's performance with TCS regulation, especially when there are insufficient public or shared transport supplies. To address this, we develop a dynamic multimodal equilibrium model to capture operation constraints and induced waiting times under TCS regulation. The model integrates travelers' mode choices, credit trading, traffic dynamics, and waiting time, which depend on key operational features of service vehicles such as fleet size and capacity. Besides, most TCS studies assume fixed transport supply, overlooking supply-side responses triggered by demand shifts. Therefore, we further propose integrating adaptive supply management through the deployment of Demand-Responsive Autonomous Shuttles (DRAS) and developing a bi-level optimization framework that incorporates the equilibrium model to jointly optimize TCS design and operational strategies for the DRAS. We apply the framework to a section of the A10 highway near Paris, France, to examine demand-supply interactions and assess the potential benefits of jointly implementing TCS and DRAS. Numerical results demonstrate the importance of modeling operational features within multimodal equilibrium and incorporating flexible supply in TCS policies for mitigating overall generalized cost.