Convective and non-convective nature of Balearic meteotsunamis:a 50-year historical review

TL;DR

This 50-year review of Balearic meteotsunamis distinguishes between convective and non-convective events, analyzing their triggers, characteristics, and predictability to improve early-warning systems and risk mitigation.

Contribution

The study provides the most extensive dataset on Balearic meteotsunamis and introduces a novel framework for differentiating event types and assessing their predictability.

Findings

Non-convective meteotsunamis are triggered by internal gravity waves with moderate pressure fluctuations.

Convective events cause abrupt pressure jumps and can produce sea-level rises over 3 meters.

Forecasting models perform differently for each event type, enhancing prediction accuracy.

Abstract

Meteotsunamis, locally known as rissaga in the Balearic Islands, are significant sea-level oscillations induced by atmospheric disturbances, with amplitudes and frequencies comparable to seismic tsunamis. The port of Ciutadella (Menorca), is a recognized hotspot for meteotsunami occurrence. This study presents a 50-year analysis of 191 meteotsunami events recorded in Ciutadella between 1975 and 2025, focusing on the distinction between the convective and non-convective nature of the pressure disturbances that triggered the meteotsunami event and their implications for predictability and risk assessment. Events were classified using historical records, in-situ barographic and sea-level observations, satellite imagery, and lightning data. Results show that non-convective meteotsunamis are typically triggered by internal gravity waves, producing relatively regular and moderate pressure fluctuations. In contrast, convective events are associated with abrupt pressure jumps and tend to produce the most extreme sea-level oscillations, exceeding 3-4 meters in some cases, such as the catastrophic events of June 1984 and June 2006. Forecasting skill varied by event type: A full-realistic high-resolution ocean-atmosphere modelling system (BRIFS) performed better for convective cases, whereas a targeted reduced-physics method (TRAM) was more accurate for non-convective scenarios. This study provides the most extensive meteotsunami dataset for the Balearic Islands to date and offers a novel framework for understanding the contrasting dynamics and characteristics of both types of events. The results support the development of improved early-warning systems and more effective coastal risk mitigation strategies in vulnerable regions.