Group Cooperation Diverges onto Durable Low versus High Paths: Public Goods Experiments in 134 Honduran Villages

TL;DR

This large field experiment in Honduran villages reveals that group cooperation diverges into durable low or high paths, with early contributions by central individuals predicting long-term cooperation levels.

Contribution

The study provides empirical evidence of a bifurcation in cooperation paths and identifies early high contributions by central individuals as key to sustained high cooperation.

Findings

Early contribution levels predict long-term cooperation paths.

High-cooperation groups are likely to maintain their path.

Central individuals' early behavior influences group trajectory.

Abstract

We performed large, lab-in-the-field experiment (2,591 participants across 134 Honduran villages; ten rounds) and tracked how contribution behavior unfolds in fixed, anonymous groups of size five. Contribution separates early into two durable paths, one low and one high, with rare convergence thereafter. High-path players can be identified with strong accuracy early on. Groups that begin with an early majority of above-norm contributors (about 60%) are very likely finish high. The empirical finding of a bifurcation, consistent with the theory, shows that early, high contributions by socially central people steer groups onto, and help keep them on, a high-cooperation path.