A Methodology for Quantitative AI Risk Modeling

TL;DR

This paper presents a systematic methodology for quantitatively modeling AI risks by integrating scenario analysis with risk estimation, applicable to systemic AI threats like cyber offense and biological risks.

Contribution

It introduces a novel six-step risk modeling framework that combines scenario building, parameter quantification, and risk aggregation for AI safety assessment.

Findings

Methodology effectively models risks in LLM-enabled cyber offense.

Framework enables concrete risk estimates with probabilistic outcomes.

Applicable to various systemic AI risks including cyber and biological threats.

Abstract

Although general-purpose AI systems offer transformational opportunities in science and industry, they simultaneously raise critical concerns about safety, misuse, and potential loss of control. Despite these risks, methods for assessing and managing them remain underdeveloped. Effective risk management requires systematic modeling to characterize potential harms, as emphasized in frameworks such as the EU General-Purpose AI Code of Practice. This paper advances the risk modeling component of AI risk management by introducing a methodology that integrates scenario building with quantitative risk estimation, drawing on established approaches from other high-risk industries. Our methodology models risks through a six-step process: (1) defining risk scenarios, (2) decomposing them into quantifiable parameters, (3) quantifying baseline risk without AI models, (4) identifying key risk indicators such as benchmarks, (5) mapping these indicators to model parameters to estimate LLM uplift, and (6) aggregating individual parameters into risk estimates that enable concrete claims (e.g., X% probability of >\$Y in annual cyber damages). We examine the choices that underlie our methodology throughout the article, with discussions of strengths, limitations, and implications for future research. Our methodology is designed to be applicable to key systemic AI risks, including cyber offense, biological weapon development, harmful manipulation, and loss-of-control, and is validated through extensive application in LLM-enabled cyber offense. Detailed empirical results and cyber-specific insights are presented in a companion paper.