Commanding the Foul Shot: A New Ensemble of Free Throw Metrics

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel ensemble of free throw metrics, especially 'command', derived from high-resolution 3D tracking data, to better evaluate and predict NBA free throw success.

Contribution

It presents a new metric 'command' for assessing free throw quality, based on high-resolution tracking data, and links shot consistency to player skill and development.

Findings

Command predicts late-season success better than traditional metrics.

Players with consistent launch dynamics have higher command scores.

A physics model identifies robust launch conditions for successful free throws.

Abstract

With the NBA's adoption of in-game limb tracking in 2023, Sony's Hawk-Eye system now captures high-resolution, 3D poses of players and the ball 60 times per second. Linking these data to key events opens a new era in NBA analytics. Here, we leverage a large dataset of 21,964 shot attempts from 72 NBA players to introduce a novel ensemble of metrics for evaluating free-throw shooting. Inspired by baseball analytics, we introduce command, which quantifies the quality of a free throw by measuring a shooter's accuracy and precision near the basket's bullseye. This metric recognizes that some makes (or misses) are better than others and captures a player's ability to execute quality attempts consistently. We demonstrate that command captures underlying skill more effectively than traditional make-or-miss statistics; early-season command predicts late-season success more reliably than traditional shooting percentage. To identify what drives command, we define launch-based metrics assessing consistency in release velocity, angle, and 3D position. Players with greater touch, i.e., more consistent launch dynamics, exhibit stronger command as they can reliably control their shot trajectory. Finally, we develop a physics model to identify the range of launch conditions that result in a make and to determine which launch conditions are most robust to small perturbations. This framework reveals ''safe'' launch regions and explains why certain players excel at free throws, providing actionable insights for player development.