Rice Price Dynamics during the 1945--1947 Famine in Post-War Taiwan: A Quantitative Reassessment

TL;DR

This study provides a detailed quantitative analysis of rice price fluctuations in post-war Taiwan, revealing the significant impact of government policies during the 1945-1947 famine period.

Contribution

It introduces the first high-frequency rice price panel for Taiwan and links price dynamics to policy changes during the transition from Japanese to Chinese rule.

Findings

Rice prices followed four distinct stages with unique patterns.

Government policies significantly influenced rice price fluctuations.

Policy systems played a dominant role in the post-war food crisis.

Abstract

We compiled the first high-frequency rice price panel for Taiwan from August 1945 to March 1947, during the transition from Japanese rule to China rule. Using regression models, we found that the pattern of rice price changes could be divided into four stages, each with distinct characteristics. Based on different stages, we combined the policies formulated by the Taiwan government at the time to demonstrate the correlation between rice prices and policies. The research results highlight the dominant role of policy systems in post-war food crises.