Adaptive Normalization Mamba with Multi Scale Trend Decomposition and Patch MoE Encoding

TL;DR

AdaMamba is a novel time series forecasting model that combines adaptive normalization, multi scale trend extraction, and a mixture of experts transformer to improve stability and accuracy under non-stationarity and distributional shifts.

Contribution

The paper introduces AdaMamba, a unified architecture integrating adaptive normalization, multi scale trend decomposition, and a mixture of experts transformer for robust time series forecasting.

Findings

AdaMamba outperforms baseline models in stability and accuracy.

Effective mitigation of covariate shift demonstrated.

Modular design supports both deterministic and probabilistic forecasting.

Abstract

Time series forecasting in real world environments faces significant challenges non stationarity, multi scale temporal patterns, and distributional shifts that degrade model stability and accuracy. This study propose AdaMamba, a unified forecasting architecture that integrates adaptive normalization, multi scale trend extraction, and contextual sequence modeling to address these challenges. AdaMamba begins with an Adaptive Normalization Block that removes non stationary components through multi scale convolutional trend extraction and channel wise recalibration, enabling consistent detrending and variance stabilization. The normalized sequence is then processed by a Context Encoder that combines patch wise embeddings, positional encoding, and a Mamba enhanced Transformer layer with a mixture of experts feed forward module, allowing efficient modeling of both long range dependencies and local temporal dynamics. A lightweight prediction head generates multi horizon forecasts, and a denormalization mechanism reconstructs outputs by reintegrating local trends to ensure robustness under varying temporal conditions. AdaMamba provides strong representational capacity with modular extensibility, supporting deterministic prediction and compatibility with probabilistic extensions. Its design effectively mitigates covariate shift and enhances predictive reliability across heterogeneous datasets. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that AdaMamba's combination of adaptive normalization and expert augmented contextual modeling yields consistent improvements in stability and accuracy over conventional Transformer based baselines.