A Novel Deep Neural Network Architecture for Real-Time Water Demand Forecasting

TL;DR

This paper introduces a low-complexity deep learning model using GRU and data extension techniques for accurate real-time water demand forecasting, effectively addressing extreme point errors and reducing model complexity.

Contribution

It presents a novel deep learning architecture with data extension and feature creation methods, significantly reducing complexity while maintaining accuracy in water demand forecasting.

Findings

Model reduces complexity sixfold compared to existing methods.

Data extension decreases forecasting error by approximately 30%.

The approach effectively handles extreme demand points.

Abstract

Short-term water demand forecasting (StWDF) is the foundation stone in the derivation of an optimal plan for controlling water supply systems. Deep learning (DL) approaches provide the most accurate solutions for this purpose. However, they suffer from complexity problem due to the massive number of parameters, in addition to the high forecasting error at the extreme points. In this work, an effective method to alleviate the error at these points is proposed. It is based on extending the data by inserting virtual data within the actual data to relieve the nonlinearity around them. To our knowledge, this is the first work that considers the problem related to the extreme points. Moreover, the water demand forecasting model proposed in this work is a novel DL model with relatively low complexity. The basic model uses the gated recurrent unit (GRU) to handle the sequential relationship in the historical demand data, while an unsupervised classification method, K-means, is introduced for the creation of new features to enhance the prediction accuracy with less number of parameters. Real data obtained from two different water plants in China are used to train and verify the model proposed. The prediction results and the comparison with the state-of-the-art illustrate that the method proposed reduces the complexity of the model six times of what achieved in the literature while conserving the same accuracy. Furthermore, it is found that extending the data set significantly reduces the error by about 30%. However, it increases the training time.