Proportional integral derivative booster for neural networks-based time-series prediction: Case of water demand prediction

TL;DR

This paper introduces a PID-inspired boosting method to improve neural network-based multi-step time-series prediction accuracy, demonstrated on water demand and energy consumption forecasting, with minimal added complexity.

Contribution

A novel PID-based boosting approach for neural networks enhances multi-step time-series prediction accuracy while maintaining low system complexity.

Findings

Improved prediction accuracy on water demand data.

Enhanced energy consumption forecasting performance.

Reduced model complexity compared to traditional methods.

Abstract

Multi-step time-series prediction is an essential supportive step for decision-makers in several industrial areas. Artificial intelligence techniques, which use a neural network component in various forms, have recently frequently been used to accomplish this step. However, the complexity of the neural network structure still stands up as a critical problem against prediction accuracy. In this paper, a method inspired by the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control approach is investigated to enhance the performance of neural network models used for multi-step ahead prediction of periodic time-series information while maintaining a negligible impact on the complexity of the system. The PID-based method is applied to the predicted value at each time step to bring that value closer to the real value. The water demand forecasting problem is considered as a case study, where two deep neural network models from the literature are used to prove the effectiveness of the proposed boosting method. Furthermore, to prove the applicability of this PID-based booster to other types of periodic time-series prediction problems, it is applied to enhance the accuracy of a neural network model used for multi-step forecasting of hourly energy consumption. The comparison between the results of the original prediction models and the results after using the proposed technique demonstrates the superiority of the proposed method in terms of prediction accuracy and system complexity.