Extending Integrated Assessment Model scenarios until 2150 using an emulation Framework

TL;DR

This paper introduces an emulation framework to extend Integrated Assessment Model scenarios from 2100 to 2150, enabling long-term climate scenario analysis without full IAM simulations.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel emulator-based framework to extend IAM scenarios beyond 2100, facilitating long-term climate research and scenario development.

Findings

Framework successfully extends scenarios to 2150

Enables analysis of long-term climate tipping points

Provides a practical interim solution for ScenarioMIP

Abstract

Whereas there is growing interest in exploring longer-term climate with overshoot, including tipping elements, beyond 2100, most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) generate emissions scenarios only till 2100. Here we propose a framework to extend scenarios until 2150 using an emulator of IAMs. Our framework offers a potential interim solution for developing very long-term scenarios, such as the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), circumventing the challenges of fully simulating IAMs beyond 2100.