China Regional 3km Downscaling Based on Residual Corrective Diffusion Model

TL;DR

This paper introduces an enhanced diffusion-based statistical downscaling model called CorrDiff for high-resolution weather forecasting in China, leveraging deep learning to improve accuracy and detail over traditional models.

Contribution

The work extends CorrDiff to a larger region, incorporates high-level variables, and adds a global residual connection, advancing deep learning-based downscaling methods for weather prediction.

Findings

Outperforms CMA-MESO in MAE for target variables.

Generates realistic fine-scale weather details.

Effective for high-resolution regional forecasting.

Abstract

A fundamental challenge in numerical weather prediction is to efficiently produce high-resolution forecasts. A common solution is applying downscaling methods, which include dynamical downscaling and statistical downscaling, to the outputs of global models. This work focuses on statistical downscaling, which establishes statistical relationships between low-resolution and high-resolution historical data using statistical models. Deep learning has emerged as a powerful tool for this task, giving rise to various high-performance super-resolution models, which can be directly applied for downscaling, such as diffusion models and Generative Adversarial Networks. This work relies on a diffusion-based downscaling framework named CorrDiff. In contrast to the original work of CorrDiff, the region considered in this work is nearly 40 times larger, and we not only consider surface variables as in the original work, but also encounter high-level variables (six pressure levels) as target downscaling variables. In addition, a global residual connection is added to improve accuracy. In order to generate the 3km forecasts for the China region, we apply our trained models to the 25km global grid forecasts of CMA-GFS, an operational global model of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), and SFF, a data-driven deep learning-based weather model developed from Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNO). CMA-MESO, a high-resolution regional model, is chosen as the baseline model. The experimental results demonstrate that the forecasts downscaled by our method generally outperform the direct forecasts of CMA-MESO in terms of MAE for the target variables. Our forecasts of radar composite reflectivity show that CorrDiff, as a generative model, can generate fine-scale details that lead to more realistic predictions compared to the corresponding deterministic regression models.