Impact of power outages on the adoption of residential solar photovoltaic in a changing climate

TL;DR

This study analyzes how power outages affect residential solar PV adoption, showing that increased outages significantly reduce installation rates and highlighting the need for policies that enhance grid resilience to support decarbonization.

Contribution

The paper provides a high-resolution, causal analysis of outage impacts on PV adoption and projects future risks under climate scenarios, emphasizing policy implications.

Findings

Each additional outage hour reduces PV installation rate by 0.012 percentage points annually.

Outage duration and frequency are projected to double by 2040, risking slower decarbonization.

Power outages significantly hinder residential solar adoption, necessitating integrated resilience policies.

Abstract

Residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems are a cornerstone of residential decarbonization and energy resilience. However, most existing systems are PV-only and cannot provide backup power during grid failures. Here, we present a high-resolution analysis of 377,726 households in Indianapolis, US, quantifying how power outages influence the installation of PV-only systems between 2014 and 2023. Using a two-part econometric panel model, we estimate the causal effect of power outage exposure and project future risks under a middle of the road climate scenario (RCP 4.5). We find that each additional hour of annual outage duration per household lowers the new-installation rate by 0.012 percentage points per year, equivalent to a 31% decline relative to the historical mean (2014-2023). With outage duration and frequency projected to double by 2040, these results reveal a potential vicious cycle between grid unreliability and slower decarbonization, calling for policies that integrate grid resilience and clean-energy goals.