Analysis of Provincial Export Performance in Turkiye: A Spectral Clustering Approach

TL;DR

This paper applies spectral clustering to categorize Turkiye's 81 provinces based on export, import, and net export data from 2023, revealing three distinct performance groups and highlighting regional export disparities.

Contribution

It introduces a spectral clustering approach with eigen-gap and silhouette methods to analyze provincial export performance in Turkiye, incorporating exchange rate adjustments for accuracy.

Findings

Provinces are grouped into three clusters: Low, Medium, High export performance.

42% of provinces are in the Low export category, 33% in Medium, and 25% in High.

Izmir has the highest net export performance, Istanbul the lowest.

Abstract

This study analyzes and clusters Turkiye's 81 provinces based on their export performance. The study uses import, export and net export data for 2023. In addition, exchange rate-adjusted versions of the data were also included to eliminate the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. Spectral clustering method is used to group the export performance of cities. The optimum number of clusters was determined by the Eigen-Gap method. The Silhouette coefficient method was used to evaluate the clustering performance. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that the data set was optimally separated into 3 clusters. Spectral-clustering analysis based on export performance showed that 42% of the provinces are in the "Low", 33% in the "Medium" and 25% in the "High" export performance category. In terms of import performance, 44%, 33%, 33%, and 22% of the provinces are in the "Medium", "High", and "Low" categories, respectively. In terms of net exports, 38, 35% and 27% of the provinces are in the "Low", "Medium" and "High" net export performance categories, respectively. Izmir has the highest net export performance, while Istanbul has the lowest.