From informal markets to Limit Order Book dynamics: a mean field connection

TL;DR

This paper introduces a mean-field framework connecting informal markets and limit order book dynamics, using a parameter to interpolate between random trades and optimal transactions, supported by numerical and analytical results.

Contribution

It presents a novel unified model that bridges informal and formal market dynamics through a preferential interaction parameter, with analytical and numerical validation.

Findings

Reproduces informal market behavior at $\Psi=0$

Recovers LOB dynamics as $\Psi o \infty$

Provides analytical solutions for symmetric informal market case

Abstract

We propose a unified mean-field framework that bridges the dynamics of informal financial markets and formal markets governed by Limit Order Books (LOBs). Both settings are modeled as interacting particle systems on a 1D price lattice, with temporal evolution described by master equations that account for new entries, cancellations, and executions. The key insight is the introduction of a preferential interaction parameter $\Psi$, which modulates the likelihood of transactions based on price compatibility: when $\Psi=0$, interactions are random and uncoordinated, reproducing the structure of informal markets; as $\Psi\to \infty$, only optimal (most mutually attractive) trades occur, recovering LOB-like dynamics. A grand-canonical interpretation is used to identify effective thermodynamic quantities -such as interaction energy and price-dependent chemical potentials -that underlie both systems. Most results are validated through numerical integration and simulations, although an analytical solution is shown to exist at least for the symmetric stationary case of the informal market.