Cyclical Temporal Encoding and Hybrid Deep Ensembles for Multistep Energy Forecasting

TL;DR

This paper presents a novel deep learning framework combining cyclical temporal encoding with hybrid LSTM-CNN ensembles to improve multistep energy consumption forecasting, demonstrating superior accuracy over existing methods.

Contribution

It introduces a unified approach integrating cyclical encodings and hybrid ensembles for enhanced multistep energy forecasting, a first in comprehensive evaluation of these techniques together.

Findings

Consistent improvement across all forecast horizons

Lower RMSE and MAE than baseline models

Effective combination of temporal encodings and hybrid architectures

Abstract

Accurate electricity consumption forecasting is essential for demand management and smart grid operations. This paper introduces a unified deep learning framework that integrates cyclical temporal encoding with hybrid LSTM-CNN architectures to enhance multistep energy forecasting. We systematically transform calendar-based attributes using sine cosine encodings to preserve periodic structure and evaluate their predictive relevance through correlation analysis. To exploit both long-term seasonal effects and short-term local patterns, we employ an ensemble model composed of an LSTM, a CNN, and a meta-learner of MLP regressors specialized for each forecast horizon. Using a one year national consumption dataset, we conduct an extensive experimental study including ablation analyses with and without cyclical encodings and calendar features and comparisons with established baselines from the literature. Results demonstrate consistent improvements across all seven forecast horizons, with our hybrid model achieving lower RMSE and MAE than individual architectures and prior methods. These findings confirm the benefit of combining cyclical temporal representations with complementary deep learning structures. To our knowledge, this is the first work to jointly evaluate temporal encodings, calendar-based features, and hybrid ensemble architectures within a unified short-term energy forecasting framework.